WA
WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (WAL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Mixed print vs consensus: EPS of $1.79 modestly exceeded S&P Global consensus of ~$1.78*, while net revenue of $778.0M trailed the ~$793.2M* consensus as non-interest income softened; management emphasized sequential PPNR growth ahead supported by loan/deposit momentum .
- Core fundamentals steady: NIM held at 3.47% (down 1 bp q/q), adjusted NIM expanded 17 bps (inclusive of deposit costs) as ECR costs fell; loans +$1.1B and deposits +$3.0B q/q; NPAs declined to 0.60% of assets with NCOs at 20 bps .
- Guidance largely unchanged; expense/ECR tweaks: FY25 loan (+$5B) and deposit (+$8B) growth, NII and fee growth (+6–8%) reiterated; ECR costs nudged higher to $485–$535M (from $475–$525M), Q2 ECR guided to $140–$150M; tax rate trimmed to ~20% (from ~21%) .
- Capital/liquidity resilient: CET1 11.1% with REIT preferred issuance ($293M net) boosting Tier 1 leverage to 8.6%; TBVPS rose to $54.10 (+3.5% q/q, +14.4% y/y) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Loan/deposit growth and stable asset quality: “Quarterly loan and deposit growth of $1.1 billion and $3.0 billion… Asset quality remained stable… net loan charge-offs… 0.20%” (CEO) .
- Adjusted margin dynamics improved: Adjusted NIM (inclusive of deposit costs) expanded 17 bps to ~2.75% as ECR costs declined; NIM only -1 bp q/q (CFO) .
- Capital build and book value accretion: Tangible book value per share rose to $54.10; REIT preferred raised Tier 1 leverage to 8.6% while CET1 stayed >11% .
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What Went Wrong
- Revenue shortfall vs Street: Net revenue of $778.0M missed S&P consensus ~$793.2M* on softer non-interest income (mortgage banking and equity investments) .
- Higher adjusted expense ratio q/q: Adjusted efficiency ratio rose to 55.8% from 51.1% on seasonal compensation and lower non-interest income .
- Classified assets ticked up: Classified assets increased to $1.2B (1.44% of assets) even as NPAs fell; investors continue to scrutinize office/CRE migration and modest ACL ratio .
Financial Results
Overall P&L and profitability (oldest → newest)
Vs S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025)
Values marked with * are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Drivers and YoY/qoQ context:
- NII $650.6M (-$15.9M q/q; +$51.7M y/y) with the q/q decline largely due to a shorter day count; NIM 3.47% (-1 bp q/q) .
- Non-interest income $127.4M (vs $171.9M in Q4), driven by lower gain on origination/sales (-$18.4M), equity investments (-$15.9M), and other income (-$5.6M) .
- Provision $31.2M (vs $60.0M in Q4) reflecting $25.8M NCOs (20 bps), loan growth, and incremental qualitative adjustments in CRE/construction .
Key balance sheet and credit KPIs (oldest → newest)
Additional details:
- Deposits +$3.0B q/q to $69.3B; non-interest-bearing rose to $22.0B; loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 79% .
- REIT preferred issuance ($293M net) recognized as noncontrolling interest; lifted Tier 1 leverage to 8.6% .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Western Alliance delivered solid first quarter results led by continued loan and deposit growth… PPNR of $277.6 million… Asset quality remained stable… earnings per share of $1.79… Tangible book value per share… $54.10 with a CET1 ratio of 11.1%.” – Kenneth Vecchione, CEO .
- “Adjusted NIM, inclusive of deposit costs, expanded 17 bps… Our cost of interest-bearing deposits declined 23 bps… We continue to sustain momentum in lowering the bank’s cost of funding.” – Dale Gibbons, CFO .
- “Deposits grew $3 billion in Q1, mostly in noninterest-bearing… specialty escrow and HOA contributed… tangible book value per share climbed 14% year-over-year.” – Dale Gibbons .
Q&A Highlights
- ACL adequacy and investor perception: Management defended ACL methodology and overlays (Moody’s S4 adverse scenario for office), arguing reserves are appropriate and not a precursor to charge builds .
- Fee income trajectory: Expect fee income to rise in 2H, supported by seasonal mortgage and treasury management/service charges; still modeling flat mortgage revenue y/y .
- Capital strategy: REIT preferred designed to enhance Tier 1 leverage at a lower after-tax cost; subordinated debt call contemplated to mitigate preferred cost; buybacks not prioritized given growth opportunities and competitive CET1 signaling .
- NII/margin cadence: Sequential NII growth expected in Q2/Q3; adjusted NIM to strengthen as ECR costs flatten then decline into Q3/Q4; reported NIM up gradually .
- Loan growth timing/yields: Q2 loan growth to exceed Q1, often back-half weighted; loan pricing under pressure and rate cuts limit yield uplift .
- ECR balances/rates: Q2 ECR higher largely on average balance; spreads not expected to rise further; ECR betas around ~81% over time .
Estimates Context
- EPS modest beat; revenue miss: Q1’25 EPS $1.79 vs S&P consensus ~$1.78*; net revenue $778.0M vs S&P consensus ~$793.2M* .
- Street adjustments: Given raised ECR cost outlook and Q1 non-interest income softness, models may trim near-term revenue/expense assumptions while holding FY NII/fee growth ranges pending Q2 ECR and loan growth cadence .
Values marked with * are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- The print was balanced: slight EPS beat but revenue miss; the narrative hinges on ECR cost path and loan growth acceleration into Q2/Q3 .
- Sequential PPNR improvement remains the core bull point as adjusted margin expands and deposit costs normalize; monitor Q2 ECR ($140–$150M) and adjusted efficiency progression .
- Credit stable but watch classified asset resolution pace and office reappraisals; NPAs improved, NCOs consistent with ~20 bps full-year guide .
- Capital cushion intact with CET1 >11% and improved leverage via REIT preferred; TBVPS compounded double-digit y/y .
- Guidance steady on growth and NII/fees; tweaks to ECR and expense ranges are modest and reflect rate/seasonality; tax rate cut to ~20% is a small tailwind .
- Near-term catalysts: confirmation of stronger Q2 loan growth, continued ECR cost downtrend into 2H, and sustained TBVPS accretion; overhang remains investor debate on ACL levels vs peers .
- Trading stance: momentum in PPNR and capital accretion vs lingering revenue sensitivity and credit classification mix; risk-reward improves if Q2 shows clear adjusted margin and fee traction .
Appendix: Additional Data Points and Disclosures
- Income statement detail: Net revenue $778.0M (-7.2% q/q; +6.8% y/y); non-interest expense $500.4M (-$18.6M q/q; +$18.6M y/y), with deposit costs $136.8M (down $37.7M q/q) .
- Deposit mix (% of total): NIB 31.8%, IBDDA 22.4%, Savings/MM 31.3%, CDs 14.5%; LDR 79% .
- Allowance metrics: ACL/funded HFI loans 0.77%; adjusted for CLNs 0.92%; NPL coverage 94% (ACL/Nonaccrual) .
- Management Outlook slide (unchanged core elements): FY25 loans +$5B; deposits +$8B; NII +6–8%; non-interest income +6–8%; NIE ex-deposit costs $1.45–$1.50B; ECR costs $485–$535M; tax ~20% .
- CEO return: Board reappointed Kenneth Vecchione as CEO effective April 15, 2025 .