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WESTERN ALLIANCE BANCORPORATION (WAL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Mixed print vs consensus: EPS of $1.79 modestly exceeded S&P Global consensus of ~$1.78*, while net revenue of $778.0M trailed the ~$793.2M* consensus as non-interest income softened; management emphasized sequential PPNR growth ahead supported by loan/deposit momentum .
  • Core fundamentals steady: NIM held at 3.47% (down 1 bp q/q), adjusted NIM expanded 17 bps (inclusive of deposit costs) as ECR costs fell; loans +$1.1B and deposits +$3.0B q/q; NPAs declined to 0.60% of assets with NCOs at 20 bps .
  • Guidance largely unchanged; expense/ECR tweaks: FY25 loan (+$5B) and deposit (+$8B) growth, NII and fee growth (+6–8%) reiterated; ECR costs nudged higher to $485–$535M (from $475–$525M), Q2 ECR guided to $140–$150M; tax rate trimmed to ~20% (from ~21%) .
  • Capital/liquidity resilient: CET1 11.1% with REIT preferred issuance ($293M net) boosting Tier 1 leverage to 8.6%; TBVPS rose to $54.10 (+3.5% q/q, +14.4% y/y) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Loan/deposit growth and stable asset quality: “Quarterly loan and deposit growth of $1.1 billion and $3.0 billion… Asset quality remained stable… net loan charge-offs… 0.20%” (CEO) .
    • Adjusted margin dynamics improved: Adjusted NIM (inclusive of deposit costs) expanded 17 bps to ~2.75% as ECR costs declined; NIM only -1 bp q/q (CFO) .
    • Capital build and book value accretion: Tangible book value per share rose to $54.10; REIT preferred raised Tier 1 leverage to 8.6% while CET1 stayed >11% .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Revenue shortfall vs Street: Net revenue of $778.0M missed S&P consensus ~$793.2M* on softer non-interest income (mortgage banking and equity investments) .
    • Higher adjusted expense ratio q/q: Adjusted efficiency ratio rose to 55.8% from 51.1% on seasonal compensation and lower non-interest income .
    • Classified assets ticked up: Classified assets increased to $1.2B (1.44% of assets) even as NPAs fell; investors continue to scrutinize office/CRE migration and modest ACL ratio .

Financial Results

Overall P&L and profitability (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Revenue ($M)$823.1 $838.4 $778.0
Diluted EPS ($)$1.80 $1.95 $1.79
Net Interest Margin (%)3.61 3.48 3.47
Adjusted Efficiency Ratio (%)52.7 51.1 55.8
PPNR ($M)$285.7 $319.4 $277.6

Vs S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025)

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
EPS ($)$1.78*$1.79 +$0.01 (~+0.6%)*
Revenue ($M)$793.2*$778.0 -$15.2 (~-1.9%)*

Values marked with * are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Drivers and YoY/qoQ context:

  • NII $650.6M (-$15.9M q/q; +$51.7M y/y) with the q/q decline largely due to a shorter day count; NIM 3.47% (-1 bp q/q) .
  • Non-interest income $127.4M (vs $171.9M in Q4), driven by lower gain on origination/sales (-$18.4M), equity investments (-$15.9M), and other income (-$5.6M) .
  • Provision $31.2M (vs $60.0M in Q4) reflecting $25.8M NCOs (20 bps), loan growth, and incremental qualitative adjustments in CRE/construction .

Key balance sheet and credit KPIs (oldest → newest)

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Loans HFI ($B)53.346 53.676 54.761
Deposits ($B)68.040 66.341 69.322
NCOs / Avg Loans (%)0.20 0.25 0.20
NPAs / Total Assets (%)0.45 0.65 0.60
CET1 (%)11.2 11.3 11.1
TCE / Tangible Assets (%)7.2 7.2 7.2
TBVPS ($)51.98 52.27 54.10

Additional details:

  • Deposits +$3.0B q/q to $69.3B; non-interest-bearing rose to $22.0B; loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 79% .
  • REIT preferred issuance ($293M net) recognized as noncontrolling interest; lifted Tier 1 leverage to 8.6% .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q4’24 Call)Current Guidance (Q1’25)Change
Loans (HFI) growthFY 2025~+$5B ~+$5B (unchanged) Maintained
Deposits growthFY 2025~+$8B ~+$8B (unchanged) Maintained
Net Interest IncomeFY 2025+6% to +8% y/y +6% to +8% y/y (unchanged) Maintained
Non-interest incomeFY 2025+6% to +8% y/y +6% to +8% y/y (unchanged) Maintained
Non-interest expense (ex-deposit costs)FY 2025-1% to -6% y/y 0% to -5% y/y Slightly less improvement
ECR-related deposit costsFY 2025$475–$525M $485–$535M; Q2: $140–$150M Raised
CET1FY 2025~11.3% >11% Slightly lower point estimate, still >11%
Net charge-offsFY 2025~20 bps ~20 bps (unchanged) Maintained
Effective tax rateFY 2025~21% ~20% Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24, Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
NII & margin trajectoryQ3: NII +$40M q/q; NIM 3.61% (-2 bps) . Q4: NIM 3.48% on rate cuts; adjusted margin +4 bps q/q (CFO) .NIM 3.47% (-1 bp); adjusted NIM +17 bps on ECR cost declines (CFO) .Improving adjusted profitability despite flat reported NIM.
ECR deposit costsQ3: Deposit costs drove higher expenses . Q4: ECR costs -$33.5M q/q to $174.5M .Q1: Deposit costs $136.8M; Q2 ECR guided $140–$150M; full-year ECR $485–$535M (raised) .Downtrend with seasonality; outlook slightly higher.
Asset quality / CRE officeQ3 NPAs 0.45% (down); classified assets up to $0.84B . Q4 NPAs rose to 0.65%; classified to ~$1.01B .NPAs eased to 0.60%; classified assets up to $1.20B; collateral “as-is” valuations cited .Stable NPAs; elevated classified being worked down.
Capital & fundingQ3 CET1 11.2%, TCE 7.2% . Q4 CET1 11.3% .CET1 11.1%; REIT preferred lifted Tier 1 leverage to 8.6% .Solid capital; leverage strengthened.
Mortgage bankingQ3: Mixed; MSR FV volatility . Q4: Mortgage revenue strong; GOS margin 21 bps .Q1: Mortgage revenue $71.3M (down q/q); GOS margin 19 bps .Choppy; seasonality and spreads matter.
Deposit mixQ3: NIBD 36.7% with seasonal MW impact . Q4: NIBD 28.4% .Q1: NIBD 31.8%; improved mix; LDR 79% .Normalizing noninterest-bearing mix and LDR.

Management Commentary

  • “Western Alliance delivered solid first quarter results led by continued loan and deposit growth… PPNR of $277.6 million… Asset quality remained stable… earnings per share of $1.79… Tangible book value per share… $54.10 with a CET1 ratio of 11.1%.” – Kenneth Vecchione, CEO .
  • “Adjusted NIM, inclusive of deposit costs, expanded 17 bps… Our cost of interest-bearing deposits declined 23 bps… We continue to sustain momentum in lowering the bank’s cost of funding.” – Dale Gibbons, CFO .
  • “Deposits grew $3 billion in Q1, mostly in noninterest-bearing… specialty escrow and HOA contributed… tangible book value per share climbed 14% year-over-year.” – Dale Gibbons .

Q&A Highlights

  • ACL adequacy and investor perception: Management defended ACL methodology and overlays (Moody’s S4 adverse scenario for office), arguing reserves are appropriate and not a precursor to charge builds .
  • Fee income trajectory: Expect fee income to rise in 2H, supported by seasonal mortgage and treasury management/service charges; still modeling flat mortgage revenue y/y .
  • Capital strategy: REIT preferred designed to enhance Tier 1 leverage at a lower after-tax cost; subordinated debt call contemplated to mitigate preferred cost; buybacks not prioritized given growth opportunities and competitive CET1 signaling .
  • NII/margin cadence: Sequential NII growth expected in Q2/Q3; adjusted NIM to strengthen as ECR costs flatten then decline into Q3/Q4; reported NIM up gradually .
  • Loan growth timing/yields: Q2 loan growth to exceed Q1, often back-half weighted; loan pricing under pressure and rate cuts limit yield uplift .
  • ECR balances/rates: Q2 ECR higher largely on average balance; spreads not expected to rise further; ECR betas around ~81% over time .

Estimates Context

  • EPS modest beat; revenue miss: Q1’25 EPS $1.79 vs S&P consensus ~$1.78*; net revenue $778.0M vs S&P consensus ~$793.2M* .
  • Street adjustments: Given raised ECR cost outlook and Q1 non-interest income softness, models may trim near-term revenue/expense assumptions while holding FY NII/fee growth ranges pending Q2 ECR and loan growth cadence .

Values marked with * are from S&P Global; Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The print was balanced: slight EPS beat but revenue miss; the narrative hinges on ECR cost path and loan growth acceleration into Q2/Q3 .
  • Sequential PPNR improvement remains the core bull point as adjusted margin expands and deposit costs normalize; monitor Q2 ECR ($140–$150M) and adjusted efficiency progression .
  • Credit stable but watch classified asset resolution pace and office reappraisals; NPAs improved, NCOs consistent with ~20 bps full-year guide .
  • Capital cushion intact with CET1 >11% and improved leverage via REIT preferred; TBVPS compounded double-digit y/y .
  • Guidance steady on growth and NII/fees; tweaks to ECR and expense ranges are modest and reflect rate/seasonality; tax rate cut to ~20% is a small tailwind .
  • Near-term catalysts: confirmation of stronger Q2 loan growth, continued ECR cost downtrend into 2H, and sustained TBVPS accretion; overhang remains investor debate on ACL levels vs peers .
  • Trading stance: momentum in PPNR and capital accretion vs lingering revenue sensitivity and credit classification mix; risk-reward improves if Q2 shows clear adjusted margin and fee traction .

Appendix: Additional Data Points and Disclosures

  • Income statement detail: Net revenue $778.0M (-7.2% q/q; +6.8% y/y); non-interest expense $500.4M (-$18.6M q/q; +$18.6M y/y), with deposit costs $136.8M (down $37.7M q/q) .
  • Deposit mix (% of total): NIB 31.8%, IBDDA 22.4%, Savings/MM 31.3%, CDs 14.5%; LDR 79% .
  • Allowance metrics: ACL/funded HFI loans 0.77%; adjusted for CLNs 0.92%; NPL coverage 94% (ACL/Nonaccrual) .
  • Management Outlook slide (unchanged core elements): FY25 loans +$5B; deposits +$8B; NII +6–8%; non-interest income +6–8%; NIE ex-deposit costs $1.45–$1.50B; ECR costs $485–$535M; tax ~20% .
  • CEO return: Board reappointed Kenneth Vecchione as CEO effective April 15, 2025 .